This section contains a rolling one month historical archive of our nightly comments on major market indices including their support and resistance levels and likely direction. These comments are provided for visitors and potential subscribers to compare with recent market direction and also our weekly comments.
Our subscribed members have the benefit of access to the intra-week up-to-date entries that should help inform position management but this public archive is published at the end of each current week . See also the example swing trades section which shows how we present and update our trades.
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SP-500 Standard & Poors 500 Index - Nightly Forecast Jan 25-29 |
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Written by Admin
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Monday, 25 January 2010 08:00 |
| SPX - Standard and Poors SP500 Index |
Ticker : $SPX
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Technical Aspects: Closed below key support
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Jan. 29: Well the SPX moved down today as to leave no doubts about the direction of the new trend. Today we got a close below 1084 and 1080 and the move was on strong volume. There is not much not to like about this market if you are short. The only thing those that are still long have going for them is that the market is now very oversold, but it can remain and get more oversold so we don't pay attention to those indicators until they turn back up. Yes, we will get a bounce soon but that bounce will fail, there is no way to predict how strong or how weak that bounce will be at this point. The attempted bounce we got this week was very weak and did not test any of the strong resistance areas.
Jan: 28: The SPX broke down breaking below 1084 and even 1080 which is the low edge of the 1084 support area. It did manage to close above, but as we mentioned yesterday now that the 1084 support level has been broken it is much easier for it to break it again. It is just a matter of time before this market moves down significantly. The only problem is, that as we have seen this week that move down will not be easy.
Jan. 27: Well in the morning it looked like we would get a confirmation on yesterdays key reversal down as the SPX moved down breaking the 1084 support level, but it turned up in the afternoon after the fed announcement. So we are back to where we were on Monday waiting for a bounce or a break down. Now that the 1084 support level has been penetrated it will be easier for the market to drop and close below it the next time it tests it. However, we still have to wait for this bounce to work itself out. Tonight's speech by President Obama will likely move the market in one direction or the other. If the market moves up tomorrow then we will have a bounce and we will need to keep an eye on the 1115 level for resistance.
Jan. 26: Today the market looked like it would go higher and maybe even test the 1114 area but it turned in the afternoon session and ended the day with a key reversal candle. In case you are not familiar with candles or key reversals a key reversal is when the price goes above the previous days high but closes below the previous days low. The opposite is true on a down key reversal. Candles also need a second candle in order to confirm the move. There is still a chance that the market will try to move up one more time before the end of day Thursday, but today's action is very powerful and should be taken seriously.
Jan. 25: The SPX bounced today as we mentioned it might. This bounce is probably not over and may test the 1115 area or even 1121 before failing, depending on the fear level of those that went short last week.
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Last Updated on Sunday, 31 January 2010 10:31 |
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DJ-30 - Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Index - Nightly Forecast Jan 25-29 |
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Written by Admin
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Monday, 25 January 2010 08:00 |
DJ-30 - Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
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Ticker : $DJI, DJ-30, DJIA
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Technical Aspects: Continued lower on strong volume
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Jan. 29: The DJ-30 broke down making a new lower low on this move. Today's move down was strong and the candle was confirmation of more downside to come. Dow 10,000 is now very close, yes those zeros do act as support and may slow the move down, but real support is at 9930, then all the way down to 9630.
Jan. 28: Well it didn't bounce. Today's move lower was strong. A bounce now will not take the index to the same heights we would have seen had it bounced today. Resistance is now at 10310.
Jan. 27: If the markets bounce tomorrow resistance will be at the 10430 level.
Jan. 26: Unlike the SPX the DJ-30 did not make a key reversal down. Today's candle is a reversal but not a key reversal. We will have to wait to see what tomorrow brings.
Jan. 25: The DJ-30 also bounced but it closed near the lows and looks weaker than the SPX.
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Last Updated on Sunday, 31 January 2010 10:33 |
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COMPQX - Nasdaq Composite Index - Nightly Forecast Jan 25-29 |
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Written by Admin
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Monday, 25 January 2010 08:00 |
COMPQX - Nasdaq Composite Index
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Ticker : $COMP, COMPQX
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Technical Aspects: Broke support closed at lows
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Jan. 29: The NASDAQ was once again the weakest of the three indexes and continued to lead the way down. Next support is at 2116.
Jan. 28: The NASDAQ Composite was the weakest of the three today. Volume was higher and the move down % wise was bigger than it was on SPX and DJ-30. The NASDAQ is usually the leader and it is now leading the way down. When we see the DJ-30 leading like we did in December on the way up, it tells us there is something wrong and the move will usually fail as there is a reason the money is flowing in to the big blue chips and not the growth stocks of which make up the NASDAQ.
Jan. 27: Tech stocks are showing strength. The composite tested the 80 day ma and bounced. Look for 2260 resistance to be tested if the market bounces.
Jan. 26: Like the DJ-30 the NASDAQ Composite did not make a key reversal to the downside. However it did make a reversal as today's high is higher than yesterdays high and today's close is lower than yesterday's close.
Jan. 25: The NASDAQ bounced and closed between support 2200 and first resistance 2227.50 .
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Last Updated on Sunday, 31 January 2010 10:35 |
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GLD - SPDR GOLD Trust - Nightly Forecast Jan 25-29 |
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Written by Admin
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Monday, 25 January 2010 08:00 |
GLD - SPDR GOLD Trust
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Ticker : GLD
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Technical Aspects: Continued lower but showing strength
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Jan. 29: Gold moved lower on increased volume however it did not make a lower low and is showing signs of strength. The strength is due to its reputation as being safe in times of trouble in the stock market. The problem with that theory this time around is that the U.S. Dollar is going up and that will continue to put down pressure on gold. If gold does bounce we expect it will be short lived and the down trend will continue. we still have a 100 target on GLD. It does have support at 104.60 so it may bounce or trade sideways for a few weeks.
Jan. 28: Today's move down confirmed yesterdays Key reversal down. Gold did recover most of the days move lower, however that does not take away from the confirmation of lower prices to come. That does not mean that it can not bounce and move up, it just means that the trend down will continue and we will see lower prices in the near future. Resistance is now yesterdays high of 108.80.
Jan. 27: Gold made a key reversal down today. We will need it to close down tomorrow to confirm.
Jan. 26: Gold opened down but recovered and closed the day slightly up. Today's candle is a continuation type, so the bounce may continue tomorrow.
Jan. 25: Gold bounced but it was very weak so many of the gold miners continued lower. Resistance is the up trend line at about 108.33 and at 110.
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Last Updated on Sunday, 31 January 2010 10:36 |
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